Psychology and health behavior · BEGINNER LESSON
Expectation
Expectation is a future-directed belief about what will happen, or what a person thinks should, wants, or predicts will happen. In health care and mental health research, it is often studied as a belief about a future outcome or experience.
What expectation is
Expectation is a cognition, meaning a mental process that involves acquiring, interpreting, and using information to guide decisions. In the sources, expectations are described as beliefs about future events, especially whether a specific outcome will occur. One clinical source also separates expectations into predicted, ideal, normative, and unformed forms. Predicted expectation is the belief about what will actually happen; ideal expectation is what a person wants to happen; normative expectation is what a person thinks should happen; and unformed expectation means no clear prior expectation is present.
[1] Individual Expectation: An Overlooked, but Pertinent, Factor in ... [2] A New Theory of Expectations - PMC - NIH [3] The role of expectations in mental disorders and their treatment
How expectation can work
Expectation can change what people notice, how they judge events, and what they do next. One source says it can promote a body response, increase motivation, shift attention toward certain features of a disorder, change understanding of the disorder, and reduce anxiety. Another source describes an automatic process: the brain sorts information by whether events were expected or unexpected, then compares what was predicted with what was experienced. A mismatch, called prediction error, can trigger updating of the expectation. The sources also link expectation-related pain relief to opioid system activity, changes in spinal reflexes, and altered brain and spinal cord activity. Functional magnetic resonance imaging, or fMRI, is one method used to observe lower activity in pain-related brain regions during expectation-related analgesia.
[1] Individual Expectation: An Overlooked, but Pertinent, Factor in ... [2] A New Theory of Expectations - PMC - NIH [3] The role of expectations in mental disorders and their treatment
Where it matters
Expectation is discussed in musculoskeletal pain, placebo analgesia, mental disorders, and treatment. In these settings, treatment success expectations can influence symptoms and outcomes, and some authors describe expectation as a major mechanism behind placebo effects. The sources also note that expectations can be shaped by context, such as framing, priming, and social or media influences.
[1] Individual Expectation: An Overlooked, but Pertinent, Factor in ... [3] The role of expectations in mental disorders and their treatment [2] A New Theory of Expectations - PMC - NIH
Limits and measurement problems
The sources emphasize that there is no universally accepted definition of expectation and no standardized measurement tool. Studies may measure different parts of the concept, so results are hard to compare. Some tools have not been validated, meaning it is not clear that they measure expectation well. The sources also note that expectations can persist even after contradictory experiences, which makes them harder to study.
[1] Individual Expectation: An Overlooked, but Pertinent, Factor in ... [2] A New Theory of Expectations - PMC - NIH [3] The role of expectations in mental disorders and their treatment
SEE THE IDEA
How expectation can influence an outcome
A person forms a future-directed belief about what will happen.
Framing, priming, and social signals can shape the belief.
The mind compares what was expected with what was experienced.
Prediction error can revise the expectation.
Attention, motivation, pain, or treatment response may change.
Prior beliefs are shaped by context, tested against experience, and then updated; the updated belief can affect later outcomes.
Expectation is not a fixed fact; it is a belief that can be revised when experience differs from what was predicted.
TRY IT YOURSELF
Test your understanding
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PUT IT TOGETHER
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Sources and further reading
This general lesson was generated from public source material. It explains a concept; it does not interpret a private paper or provide medical advice.